Japan: More support needed to increase fertility rate
Source: The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo, Japan), 4 June 2009
In a continuing trend, Japan's fertility rate has edged up. According to Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry statistics for 2008, the estimated number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime stood at an average of 1.37, up 0.03 point from the previous year. The figure has now risen for three straight years.
However, Japan's fertility rate still remains extremely low, hovering at a range of 1.3. In addition, the increased number of babies born in 2008 is mainly attributable to the extra day gained due to it being a leap year.
Recession may see births fall
The rapid economic slowdown that began in the second half of last year may prove a major obstacle to improving the fertility rate in the future. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research has projected that Japan's fertility rate will remain at the 1.2 level over the next 50 years or so, and the nation's population will continue to decline.
Is it possible to reverse this projected decline?
Now that the fertility rate has somehow recovered to nearly 1.4 after hitting a record low of 1.26 in 2005, we are at a crucial juncture. Breakdowns of the 2008 data on births showed that the number of couples having a third child rose. We believe this is a positive sign--an increasing number of parents who already had two children decided to satisfy their desire to have one more child.
On the other hand, the number of the first and second children born to women last year declined from the previous year. This drop can be attributed to population shrinkage of women in the age group who are expected to have their first or second child.
We suspect, however, that the current social and economic situations make many young people reluctant to marry, and even if they do so, they find it economically and socially difficult to raise a child.
It will be necessary to extend more support in the fields where policy measures have proven to be effective, while taking bold new steps in areas where efforts have yet to bear fruit.
Nevertheless, the budgets allocated to measures to address the declining birthrate have been far from adequate.
While member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development earmark, on average, 2 percent of their gross domestic product for child- and family-related assistance, the figure is a mere 0.8 percent in Japan.
The government has determined that more than 2 trillion yen in fiscal resources will be needed to pay for much-needed support measures for child-rearing.
This amount could be secured with the revenue raised by a one percentage point hike in the consumption tax rate. In this respect, the consumption tax should be renamed the social security tax as soon as possible, with a view to tackling the declining birthrate.
Give minister greater powers
The current administrative system in place to address the declining birthrate is not functional either.
Although the state minister in charge of the declining birthrate is placed in the Cabinet Office, the current minister has both a limited budget and number of officials at her disposal. The minister, in effect, plays the role of coordinating opinions among the concerned ministries and agencies, including the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry.
If the government intends to regard taking measures to stem the declining birthrate as a key item of the agenda for the nation, it will be necessary to create a strong organization that has the power and means to tackle all of the various issues involved.
